Public data as a decision system.
Every panel reads an official statistic at the grain it’s reported, attaches a policy lever it bears on, and names the decision that grain can and can’t support.
Descriptions used to decide, not models used to predict.
Maternal mortality rate by race
Deaths per 100,000 live births, 2022 vs 2023
Maternal mortality rates for 2023 show the Black rate at 50.3 per 100k births, holding near the 50 mark seen in 2022 (49.5), while the White rate fell to 14.5 from 19.0. These are small annual counts (669 deaths in 2023 versus 817 in 2022 nationally), so single-year movement in any group's rate is noisy and may not be statistically significant. The data detected a wider Black-White ratio in 2023 (roughly 3.5-to-1) than in 2022, consistent with the White average moving downward while the Black rate stayed anchored near 50 — the durable finding is this persistent gap, not the year-to-year tick in either bar. No causal claim is warranted: the pattern is observational, and the data is consistent with, rather than proof of, any driver of the White-rate decline. Notably, the 12-month postpartum Medicaid extension postdates the 2023 outcome window entirely, so it cannot be credited with or blamed for the 2023 figures; it stands as a forward-looking lever aimed at closing the gap, not an explanation of what already happened.
The maternal health program office should treat the Black-White gap as the primary target metric going forward, tracking whether the 12-month postpartum Medicaid extension coincides with narrowing in future years rather than evaluating it against 2023 data.
NAEP grade 8 math score by race
Average scale score, 2022 vs 2024 (public school students)
Grade 8 math is the panel's clearest warning. Black students sit at 251.0 in 2024 against 252.0 in 2022, and Hispanic students sit at 257.0 against 261.0 in 2022; both moves are within sampling error and neither should be read as a real one-year gain or loss. NAEP scores carry sampling error by design, so single-year shifts of a point or two are not statistically significant on their own. What is real: White students hold at 284.0 across both years while Hispanic students fall from 261.0 to 257.0, meaning the White-Hispanic gap widened rather than closed. The recovery signal in this dataset is concentrated at grade 4, and it coincides with states that mandated high-dosage tutoring: Louisiana was the only state to top its pre-pandemic grade-4 reading mark, and Alabama's grade-4 math score moved from 230 to 236 in that same window. None of this proves the tutoring mandate caused those grade-4 numbers; the design is observational, and the data is consistent with recovery tracking where the lever was actually deployed at dosage, not with any lever working everywhere. Grade 8 shows no such pattern — it shows a stalled gap, and a widening one for Hispanic students.
state education agencies that have not yet mandated high-dosage tutoring at grade 8 should redirect new funding there first, targeting the widening Hispanic gap before any further grade-4 expansion.
Drug overdose death rate by race
Deaths per 100,000, 2023 vs 2024
Overdose mortality rates across all reported racial and ethnic groups declined from 2023 to 2024, with the national total falling to 79384 deaths, but the drop was not uniform. American Indian/Alaska Native communities remained the highest-rate group in both years (65.0 in 2023, 51.6 in 2024), followed by Black (48.9, then 33.8) and White populations (33.1, then 24.7), while Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, and Asian groups tracked at consistently lower levels. This persistent gap means the overall decline masks a continuing, disproportionate burden on American Indian/Alaska Native and Black populations rather than an equal easing of risk. Note that American Indian/Alaska Native overdose death counts are widely understood to be undercounted due to racial misclassification on death certificates, so the true disparity is likely even larger than these figures show. The timing of naloxone expansion coincided with this downturn, but it occurred alongside major supply-side shifts (fentanyl market saturation and precursor-chemical changes) that can dwarf harm-reduction levers in top-line mortality; the data here detected the turn but does not establish that the program caused it. Any interpretation should treat the panel as evaluative surveillance, not causal proof, and should flag the widening disparity for equity review.
Public health program leads should prioritize targeted resource allocation and improved death-certificate classification protocols for American Indian/Alaska Native and Black communities, while commissioning a supply-side-adjusted causal analysis before crediting harm-reduction levers for the observed decline.
Medicare 30-day readmission rate
Fee-for-service, all conditions, 2010 (pre-HRRP) vs 2016 (post-HRRP)
The bars pair 2010, when the ACA created the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (Social Security Act section 1886(q)), against 2016: raw, unadjusted 30-day readmissions across all Medicare fee-for-service discharges fell from 16.7 percent to 15.6 percent. Read the concentration, not the top line - readmissions for the penalized conditions dropped 13.2 percent against 4.5 percent for conditions the program does not cover (a 2.4 versus 0.7 percentage-point gap), the sign that the lever, not a background trend, moved the number. MedPAC tested the obvious dodge, hospitals shifting patients into observation stays and ED visits, and found near-identical growth for covered and non-covered conditions, so the drop was not mostly relabeling. Two honest limits: on a risk-adjusted basis heart failure readmissions fall further, 23.9 to 20.5 percent, but part of that reflects hospitals coding more diagnoses after the secondary-diagnosis fields expanded from 9 to 24 in 2011 - a measure that improves partly because it got easier to satisfy is a Goodhart risk, so the raw rates are the conservative read - and the raw decline stalled after 2014. On mortality MedPAC found no adverse effect: risk-adjusted mortality fell across every condition studied.
the penalty moved the targeted number, so hold the incentive where it works while shifting oversight toward the coding drift and the post-2014 plateau, and weigh MedPAC's recommendation to fold HRRP into a broader hospital value program.
Computer science median earnings by school
Median earnings 4 years after completion, Title IV recipients — College Scorecard field-of-study API
Pulled from the College Scorecard field-of-study API - Computer Science bachelor's, median earnings four years after completion, Title IV federal-aid recipients only. These six schools are a hand-picked illustration, not a representative sample, so read the spread as a contrast, not the distribution. For the same credential in the same field, Carnegie Mellon reports 268,121 and MIT 225,141 at the top against CUNY York 73,044 and Fayetteville State 36,164 at the bottom - a five- to sevenfold range that widens further at longer horizons. Three caveats travel with it. First, at the regionals the completer counts are thin enough that horizons run non-monotonic (Fayetteville reads 50,940 at one year but 36,164 at four), so the medians are noisy. Second, the same federal source answers differently by door - the field-of-study API returns no CS figure for Brown, whose single-year cohort is below the privacy threshold, while the public web tool shows about 214,000 by pooling two award years - so the grain of the query decides whether a number exists at all. Third, the cross-school gap blends the school's effect with selection (who it admitted), so it is not a clean read on what the degree itself causes.
the signal is real enough to steer program-level accountability and student guidance, but only if the grain - school x CIP x horizon x aid-subgroup - travels with it, because a single headline ('CS pays 250k') strips the frame that makes it true. Whether publishing earnings actually changes behavior is separately unsettled - studies find only small, advantage-concentrated sorting.
Post-completion wages by credential
Median wages 5 years after graduation — Virginia Longitudinal Data System, 2024
Virginia's SCHEV report links K-12, higher-ed, and employment records to publish post-completion wages: median annual wage five years out for 2017-18 graduates, measured on 2023 Unemployment-Insurance records (nominal). At the credential median the premium is smaller than the folk model assumes: a four-year bachelor's earns 65,249, an applied-science (AAS) associate 58,393, and a transfer associate 49,444, so 'higher credential = higher pay' holds on average but only barely, and the distributions overlap heavily, so at these medians a strong applied-science associate can out-earn a weaker bachelor's, and credential tier alone is a poor predictor of individual pay. Two caveats travel with every wage here: it is UI-covered, in-state employment only (out-of-state, federal, military, self-employed, and gig work are invisible), and not every graduate has a reported wage, and match rates differ by credential, so the medians describe differently-selected subpopulations. SCHEV itself warns against ranking programs on these wages without adjusting for family wealth, residency, and demographics.
fund and advise by field-and-region outcome rather than credential tier, and open the record-level data (today locked behind data-sharing agreements) so families and funders can interrogate the aggregate instead of trusting it.
Messier data, same discipline.
Administrative and survey panels admitted through revised governance gates. Each panel declares its data class and lever type up front; where a cross-unit comparison would blend definitions rather than reveal them, the comparison is held off the axis and named explicitly instead of smuggled into a chart.
New Jersey chronic absenteeism rate
Share of students absent 10%+ of enrolled days, 2019–2024 (NJDOE state statistic; 2020–2021 held blank as series break)
administrative = record-based, not survey · continuous = standing policy, no single enactment date — read as trend
Chronic absenteeism in New Jersey moved from 10.6 percent in 2019 to 18.1 percent in 2022, then fell to 16.6 percent in 2023 and 14.9 percent in 2024. This is a continuous, administrative lever: ESSA accountability funding has attached for years with no single enactment date, so the series should be read as an ongoing trend rather than a before/after snapshot. Remember that chronic absenteeism is a measure, not a direct observation of behavior — its rate can shift through changes in definition, coding practice, or enrollment counts, independent of whether students are actually attending more or less. The 2024 figure sits well above the 10 percent corrective-action trigger set by N.J.S.A. 18A:38-25.1, meaning a wide share of districts remain in scope for state-mandated plans even as the rate has fallen from its 2022 peak. The decline from 18.1 to 14.9 percent could reflect fewer absences, definitional or coding changes, or both; the data cannot say which, and no causal claim about any specific program is supported here. Track the four-year run rather than any single year, and confirm whether local definitional or coding shifts moved with the statewide trend before drawing conclusions about magnitude.
the state chronic-absenteeism review board should keep New Jersey districts above the 10 percent trigger under active corrective-action monitoring and request a definition/coding audit alongside the 2025 data pull.
Neighboring units are held off this shared axis until each one's denominator-reconciliation table is shown with it. The metric name is the same; the denominators are not. New Jersey: state-excused (7 statutory reasons) excluded; local-excused and out-of-school suspensions count as absent. New York: suspensions and extended medical absences excluded from the calculation.
Held off axis: New York — awaiting denominator reconciliation.
Child flourishing by state
Share of children ages 6–17 meeting all three flourishing items, 2023 (National Survey of Children's Health, HRSA MCHB)
survey = self-reported response, not a record · continuous = standing policy, no single enactment date — read as trend
Whiskers are 95% confidence intervals: the range sampling error alone leaves around each estimate. They do not cover who answered. A narrow interval means the sample was large enough to pin the number down, not that the number is free of bias from who was missing.
Across the 2022-2023 National Survey of Children's Health, the share of children ages 6 to 17 who meet all three flourishing items nationally is 60.4 percent (confidence interval 59.6 to 61.1). This is a caregiver-reported survey estimate: a parent or guardian answers on the child's behalf, so the number reflects how caregivers read and report these items, not a direct observation of the child. The states shown here are a disclosed illustration, not a leaderboard: they show how to read a caregiver-reported estimate against its confidence interval, not who flourishes most. Illinois at 66.4 percent (62.9 to 69.7) sits clear of the national figure and Montana at 53.9 percent (49.6 to 58.1) sits below it, while New Jersey at 64.5 percent, Texas at 61.9 percent, and Michigan at 58.1 percent all carry confidence intervals that overlap the national interval. As a statistical matter those three are not distinguishable from the nation, which is why the intervals are shown rather than the bare percentages, and no state here should be read as ranked against another. Two comparability cautions bound any trend reading: the NSCH was redesigned in 2016, so estimates are not comparable to earlier survey years, and item wording and administration have drifted enough since then that any across-year comparison needs a documented crosswalk rather than a straight subtraction. Coverage is also partial: household response rates run near 39.1 percent and 35.8 percent in recent waves, so nonresponse, not only sampling, shapes who is represented. On the lever: flourishing is measured by the NSCH but is not itself a Title V National Performance Measure, so the Title V Block Grant is the adjacent standing program, not a control set to it; it is a continuous lever with no enactment date, and movement should read as a trend, not a before/after snapshot.
present the national estimate alongside a disclosed illustrative set of states, always show the confidence intervals, describe overlapping states as not distinguishable, and make no ranking or program-attribution claim. A community dashboard for thriving cannot be built from the best national flourishing instrument in the country, because that instrument reports at state grain and communities decide at sub-county grain.
Adolescent mental-health indicators
Share of U.S. high-school students reporting each condition, 2023 vs 2025 (Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, CDC)
survey = self-reported response, not a record · continuous = standing policy, no single enactment date — read as trend
Whiskers are 95% confidence intervals: the range sampling error alone leaves around each estimate. They do not cover who answered. A narrow interval means the sample was large enough to pin the number down, not that the number is free of bias from who was missing. Intervals are shown at the source’s published grain. Where that grain is whole percentages, rounding can place a bound on the estimate itself, which draws the interval one-sided; the estimate is not pinned to that end of it.
Among U.S. high school students in 2025, 33 percent reported persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness, 23 percent reported poor mental health, 14 percent had seriously considered attempting suicide, and 6 percent had attempted suicide. In 2023 the four figures were 40, 29, 20 and 9 percent, and CDC reports each 2023-to-2025 change as a statistically significant decrease. Both cycles were administered on tablets (2025 also offered a web version to absent or late students), so the comparison does not cross a change in survey mode. The figures are shown at the whole-percent grain of CDC's 2023-to-2025 comparison table. These are student self-report figures, not observed behavior. Over 2015 to 2025, CDC's trend analysis finds that persistent sadness or hopelessness worsened, and finds no linear trend for seriously considering or attempting suicide. Sadness had already fallen from 42 percent in 2021 to 40 percent in 2023. It was the only one of these indicators CDC reported as changing across those two cycles, which spanned its 2023 change from paper booklets to tablets. The 2025 questionnaire still asks about school connectedness and parental monitoring. CDC's 2025 Youth Health in Focus report and tables and its 2025 MMWR supplement publish no estimate or 2023-to-2025 comparison for either. CDC's 2023 analysis found that students who reported high school connectedness had lower risk on every mental health and suicide-risk indicator. That is an association within one year, not evidence that connectedness causes the difference. The 2025 survey rests on 10,710 usable questionnaires at an overall response rate of 30.6 percent, the lowest in the survey's history. Its sampling frame is enrolled high-school students, so youth who have disconnected from school sit outside it. The adjacent federal lever, CDC's What Works in Schools program, is continuous with no single enactment date, so movement reads as a trend across cycles, not a before-and-after attributable to the program.
a school mental-health program can read the 2023-to-2025 decline as a change CDC itself tested, set against a decade in which sadness rose overall, but it cannot yet read whether protection is rising or falling.
Every figure on this page comes from a pinned federal release, transformed through a DuckDB + dbt pipeline. The ingestion step lands each release as a dated raw snapshot; dbt tests encode the known-good totals so drift fails the build instead of quietly landing here. When a source publishes an update, the pipeline re-pins, the tests re-run, and this page reflects the new numbers on the next deploy. Nothing is hand-typed.
On top of that pipeline, the write-up under each panel is drafted by a language model and then run through automated checks before it can publish. Two of those checks are strict: every number in a note must trace back to a bar on this page, and no note may claim a policy lever caused a change the data can’t support. If either fails, the build stops. The statistics are computed in code, never by the model; the model only narrates numbers it’s handed. A final step runs the release loop itself — regenerate a note, run the checks, diagnose any failure — under a guardrail that lets it fix the wording but never the tests it has to pass.
The pipeline scored against the NIST AI RMF (Govern, Map, Measure, Manage). 18 controls, each linked to the file that implements it. Weighted maturity 3.2 / 4.0: measurement and provenance are the mature layers, operational enforcement is the honest gap (the gates detect violations reliably but don’t yet block publication on their own). Stated up front rather than averaged away. Open the scorecard →
This is early. More sectors, more levers, and better cross-cutting views are on the roadmap. If you want to suggest a dataset or a lever, or if you’re building something similar and want to compare notes, send a note.